The following chart shows the New York Fed Probability of Recession in the U.S.
When the index line crosses above 30 (red line), we often see a U.S. recession follow between 2 to 4 months after the crossover. The index line, which represents treasury spreads, is 12 months ahead of today. As of November 2019, the index reading is 15% (calculated in Nov 2018). Looking ahead, the index reaches over 32% by June 2020 and continues above 30 for 4 months. Based on historical behavior, we could expect a U.S. recession sometime after July 2020.